Meta has 3.56 billion daily active users across its apps, and Mark Zuckerberg wants to use that audience to launch a prediction market. The New York Times reported on Tuesday, June 23, that he has told a small team to build a standalone app codenamed “Arena.” The paper cited two employees with knowledge of the plans. Meta declined to comment.
The bottom line: Arena would start with points, not cash.
According to the Times reporters Mike Isaac and David Yaffe-Bellany, the first version is expected to use a video game-style points system. Real-money betting has not been ruled out for later versions, but the launch build would keep users away from regulated gambling. The app is meant to run separately from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger, and the Times described it as a top priority for Zuckerberg.
Who it is aimed at
Meta is building Arena to compete with Polymarket and Kalshi, the two leading prediction market platforms in the U.S. Polymarket runs on crypto rails and settles bets on-chain. Its markets cover election results, economic data, sports and pop culture. Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange that has handled tens of billions of dollars in contract volume.
Polymarket may be the most exposed. It runs on the Polygon blockchain, and a Meta product with similar features could reach hundreds of millions of people who have never touched crypto. That could pull volume away from it, or it could bring new users into prediction markets altogether.
Why points first
Real-money prediction markets in the U.S. operate under tight oversight. Kalshi fought a long legal battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission before it won the right to list political event contracts. A Meta app that took cash wagers would draw scrutiny at once. Starting with points lets Meta build the product and grow an audience first, then weigh real money later.
The pattern is familiar. Meta copied Snapchat’s Stories format into Instagram and Facebook, and it launched Threads to take on X. Arena is still in development.
Sources
- Zuckerberg Orders Meta Into Prediction Markets With New App Codenamed 'Arena'
- Meta's Arena: Bullish Data Play or Bearish Distraction?
