Brussels, October 6 — The European Commission is set to present its long-awaited pre-enlargement strategy, outlining how a potentially larger European Union could function in the future. The draft document, reviewed by RFE/RL, will be debated for the first time at the EU leaders’ summit in Brussels on October 15–16. It serves as a foundation for potential reforms as candidate countries advance toward membership.
The strategy emphasizes that enlargement involves not only preparing candidate countries to join the Union but also preparing the Union to welcome new members while strengthening its capacity to deliver. One of the most controversial elements in the document concerns the possibility of diluted EU membership for newcomers if certain proposals are adopted, reflecting concerns in some EU capitals about admitting poorer, unprepared countries.
Diplomats have privately referenced the need to ‘avoid another Hungary,’ alluding to rule-of-law challenges under Viktor Orbán in Budapest. The strategy is understood to focus on the four current front-runners for membership: Albania, Moldova, Montenegro, and Ukraine. Montenegro aims to become the EU’s 28th member by 2028, with the other three hoping to join shortly thereafter.
The 16-page paper revisits longstanding Brussels discussions, including the Commission’s repeated call to shift decision-making in foreign policy from unanimity to qualified majority voting—defined as 55% of member states representing at least 65% of the EU’s total population. However, the document acknowledges that such a change would itself require unanimity, posing the same obstacle that has blocked prior reform efforts.
In contrast, the strategy notes that gradual integration of candidate countries into EU policies is already underway. Examples include Moldova and Ukraine’s participation in the EU’s ‘Roam Like at Home’ mobile data roaming program, with non-EU Western Balkan countries also on track to join. Additionally, several EU hopefuls have recently joined or are poised to join the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA).
The strategy does not specify exact timelines for membership but frames enlargement as a mutual process of preparation between candidate countries and the existing Union. EU leaders will now assess the proposals ahead of the mid-October summit, where the future shape of an expanded Union will be formally discussed for the first time since the document’s release. Observers will watch closely to see whether member states can overcome long-standing divisions on voting reform and conditionality, particularly as geopolitical pressures accelerate interest in the Western Balkans and Eastern enlargement.
The coming weeks will test whether the Commission’s blueprint can translate into concrete steps toward a larger, more cohesive Union — or whether familiar stalemates will persist.
