MOSCOW, September 18 — Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing to escalate the war in Ukraine, according to US and Western officials, raising fears of a new phase in a conflict that began with Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022. The reported escalation could take several forms, officials say: additional troop deployments, intensified strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, or further mobilization measures. The record shows Putin has used mobilization before.
In September 2022, he ordered a partial call-up of reservists, a move that followed a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region and preceded the Russian annexation of four Ukrainian regions — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson — after referendums widely dismissed as sham by the international community.
A war of attrition, and a stalled diplomacy
The war has killed and wounded hundreds of thousands of soldiers on both sides, according to Western estimates, and displaced millions of Ukrainians. Diplomatic efforts to end it have stalled. Russia demands recognition of its annexations; Ukraine insists on the restoration of its territorial integrity, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.
Putin, a former KGB officer who has led Russia since 1999 — first as prime minister, then as president from 2000 — has framed the war as a defensive measure against NATO expansion. Western capitals reject that framing.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has warned that Russia’s war is the biggest security threat to Europe since World War II.
Western arms and sanctions
The United States and its NATO allies have provided Ukraine with billions of dollars in military and humanitarian aid since 2022, including advanced weapons systems such as HIMARS, Patriot air defense systems and Abrams tanks. In 2023, the United Kingdom and France provided Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles, respectively. Washington has also imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia’s central bank, financial institutions and oligarchs.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly called for more Western air defense systems and long-range weapons to counter Russian strikes. The United States and its allies have pledged to support Ukraine for as long as it takes.
The conflict has had global repercussions, including disruptions to energy and food supplies. Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of wheat, corn and sunflower oil. The United Nations has documented thousands of civilian casualties and widespread destruction of infrastructure.
Officials caution that the full scope of Putin’s escalation plans is not yet clear. The situation remains fluid, and this story will be updated as more information becomes available.
